The growth of Russian income this year, if it is, will be purely nominal. Thus, the Ministry of Economic Development reduced the estimate of the growth of real incomes of Russians in 2019 by a factor of ten – from 1 to 0.1%. Prior to this, concern about the low growth in real incomes was expressed by President Vladimir Putin. Real incomes of Russians are growing slowly, although inflation slowed to 4.5% in annual terms, he said.The Ministry of Economic Development has worsened the macroeconomic forecast for 2020. So, as follows from the country’s socio-economic development report for 2019–2024, in 2019 real disposable incomes of the population will grow by 0.1%, although the previous report talked about an increase of 1%.Thus, we are talking about reducing the estimate of real income growth by ten times.The dollar exchange rate will be 65.4 rubles in 2019. (instead of 65.1 rubles), and from 2021 to 2024 the value of the American currency will increase to 67.4 rubles, while the previous forecast was 68.6 rubles.As the head of the Ministry of Economic Development Maxim Oreshkin told reporters, an updated version of the macroeconomic forecast will be discussed on September 19 at a government meeting. In this case, the parameters will be used in budgeting for the next cycle. However, they can be adjusted later.Meanwhile, before this, Russian President Vladimir Putin expressed concern about the fact that the income of Russians is not growing.For the first half of the year, Russia’s GDP increased by 0.7%, and industrial growth for seven months amounted to 2.6%, including in manufacturing industries – 2%, the Russian president noted.“The pace is positive, of course, but the dynamics as a whole cannot satisfy us. It is necessary to make economic growth more sustainable and more dynamic, ”the president said.Another positive factor in the economy is inflation. It is “gradually approaching the target”, and now is approximately 4.5% in annual terms.“But even against this background, and given the increase in wages in the economy, real incomes of people are growing slowly. This state of affairs cannot but cause concern, ”said Vladimir Putin.Vladimir Putin suggested that cabinet members think about additional incentives for economic growth and salaries. The meeting was attended by, in addition to the head of the presidential administration Anton Vaino and assistant to the president for economics Andrei Belousov, both profile ministers – finance Anton Siluanov and economic development Maxim Oreshkin, as well as the chairman of the Central Bank Elvira Nabiullina.The forecasts of other institutions regarding the future of the economy are not very encouraging.Thus, the International Monetary Fund lowered its forecast for the growth of the Russian economy in 2019 to 1.2% compared with the April estimate of 1.6%.HSE experts predicted and did predict the Russian economy a crisis in a year or a year and a half.As for the growth of real salaries of Russians, judging by statistics, there are no problems with them.Thus, real wages in Russia in the third quarter will grow by 3–3.5% in annual terms, the Bank of Russia newsletter forecast said in a July forecast.“In real terms, wages in June – July increased by 2.9% and 3.5%, respectively, in the III quarter of 2019, according to estimates of the Bank of Russia, its growth will be 3.0% –3.5% in annual terms” – noted the Central Bank.At the same time, in the first quarter of 2019, the growth in real wages of citizens amounted to 1.3% year on year, in the second quarter – 2.6%, the regulator wrote.However, the figures for the growth of real incomes of Russians (when calculating them take into account expenses that people cannot refuse — Gazeta.Ru) are not so positive.So, the real incomes of Russians fell during 2014-2017. In 2018, they showed almost zero growth – by 0.1%. The last time real incomes of the population grew in 2013 was 4%.The fact that real income growth will not be in 2019, auditors of the Accounts Chamber warned earlier. They announced a reduction in real incomes of the population and the failure to achieve the goal of poverty reduction in 2019.Experts interviewed by Gazeta.Ru also noted earlier that the real disposable income of Russians in 2019 will continue to fall, since there simply are no prerequisites for their growth.“If the economy has not grown, but it has not been growing for many years, then we have no reason to expect that real income will grow, of course,” said the director of the HSE Labor Research Center, Vladimir Gazeta.ru, earlier in an interview with a Gazeta.ru correspondent. Gimpelson.
